This issue of the Green Sheet comes exactly about a year from the time our country and the world markets changed unlike anything most of us have seen in our life time.
There have been drastic drops in the Real Estate market, the rate of unemployment is sky high reaching severe levels we have not seen in a long time. Over 80 banks have been seized by the government this year alone and many more areas have had a tremendous negative impact in our economy.
Unfortunately even the currency business has had its share of tribulations, however not as bad as the other markets. If we were to make some comparisons to other businesses actually we have done very well. For example the Real Estate market has dropped in many areas 50 to 60% and in others even more than that. For the currency market in general we’ve had probably a 20 to 30% drop off its peak on April 2008 and even than many experts agree that many of those prices were just an anomaly.
What has presently been happening in our hobby is that many people have decided to wait for the prices to drop more and in my opinion they might be letting good opportunities slip by at these low levels. This is where the Crystal Ball comes in….. If we had one, we would all know when the right time to buy and when to sell, so we would all be very wealthy and mistake free. The fact is we don’t have a crystal ball. So we will never know 100% when we have reached the peak or when we reached bottom in any market. We have to trust our instincts, study the market that we are engaged in and make your move when there is a comfort level. Of course it is easier said than done, but if we truly analyze these levels today, they are low and there is now resistance of people parting with their precious notes at these low prices.
Collectible Paper Money unlike Stocks, Real Estate, Oil, Gold and Silver just to name a few, is not something they can make more of. Paper Money was rare at the beginning of the recession, its rare today and will be even more rare when all this financial chaos is over.
This recession has not brought out a tremendous amount of quality material like the DOT.com collapse about 9 years ago. Many collectors this time opted to keep their precious bank notes instead of selling them. The collectible currency market has been more collector driven in the last 5, 6 years than investor driven. That is precisely why we have not seen a major sell off. True collectors will part with their notes only under special circumstances and after lots of consideration.
Many key dealers that experienced the recession back than in 2000-2001, state that while this one is by far greater in magnitude and can not even be compared, we did not get any were near the sell off from that time.
There is a lot of wealth sitting on the side lines just waiting to jump in and for those fortunate folks that have it, you should really consider to jump in now or soon because when this market turns, and it will, you will probably not see these price levels again for a long time.
Many collectors not too long ago were purchasing paper money in some cases without analyzing in depth the prices paid and dealers were having problems keeping quality inventory in stock, yet people were buying like a frenzy, were many times the same note traded hands 2, 3 and 4 times in the same show. Dealers were adding 5 to 10% and flipping the notes. Crazy but true!
Now with all that activity that was going on in that sizzling hot market, collectors were buying notes like they were going out of style, than why not take advantage in this cool down market while the prices are 20 to 30% down or maybe a bit more. If you are amongst the fortunate to have a secure job and the available funds to take advantage of the opportunity, there are plenty of bargains out there that will be rewarding in a very near future. You can make money on a down market just as well as in an up market, all it takes is being able to select the right items to buy and to be able to hold. That the key! If you can do this you will do just fine.
We do not have a Crystal Ball but if history repeats itself with the turns in markets, the collectible currency market will turn to the positive like it has done before.
The luxury we have with our hobby is that they don’t print more of it, so our vintage notes will always be rare. Even more as the collector base continues to grow.
